Results

cesm2.ssp245

Metric cnn naive xgboost lstm
diff_of_means 0.234 -0.509 -0.528 -0.621
ratio_of_sd 0.975 0.997 0.947 0.926
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.952 0.956 0.818 0.719
maximum_error 0.312 0.126 0.256 0.269
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.146 0.137 0.165 0.281
qqplot_mae 0.682 1.482 1.541 1.810
acf_mae 0.036 0.034 0.080 0.112
extremogram_mae 0.034 0.041 0.019 0.040

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

cesm2.ssp370

Metric cnn naive xgboost lstm
diff_of_means 0.241 -0.567 -0.594 -0.677
ratio_of_sd 0.971 0.967 0.917 0.895
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.949 0.959 0.809 0.708
maximum_error 0.324 0.127 0.247 0.273
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.085 0.041 0.118 0.224
qqplot_mae 0.703 1.651 1.735 1.970
acf_mae 0.034 0.019 0.072 0.105
extremogram_mae 0.016 0.017 0.017 0.021

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

cesm2.ssp585

Metric cnn naive xgboost lstm
diff_of_means 0.313 -0.444 -0.472 -0.559
ratio_of_sd 0.968 0.995 0.947 0.923
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.947 0.958 0.811 0.710
maximum_error 0.321 0.111 0.249 0.260
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.089 0.053 0.089 0.190
qqplot_mae 0.911 1.294 1.379 1.628
acf_mae 0.033 0.031 0.082 0.113
extremogram_mae 0.020 0.016 0.012 0.031

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

ec_earth3.ssp434

Metric cnn naive xgboost lstm
diff_of_means 0.265 -0.266 -0.284 -0.392
ratio_of_sd 0.982 1.019 0.965 0.933
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.965 0.946 0.718 0.619
maximum_error 0.343 0.163 0.259 0.336
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.139 0.176 0.285 0.373
qqplot_mae 0.772 0.775 0.838 1.141
acf_mae 0.049 0.065 0.139 0.167
extremogram_mae 0.026 0.021 0.032 0.052

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp245

Metric cnn naive xgboost lstm
diff_of_means 0.287 -0.319 -0.337 -0.412
ratio_of_sd 0.964 1.153 1.094 1.090
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.934 0.962 0.922 0.817
maximum_error 0.312 0.112 0.216 0.299
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.194 0.304 0.294 0.349
qqplot_mae 0.848 1.031 0.983 1.203
acf_mae 0.045 0.086 0.097 0.122
extremogram_mae 0.042 0.100 0.020 0.019

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp370

Metric naive xgboost lstm cnn
diff_of_means -0.134 -0.170 -0.241 0.295
ratio_of_sd 1.109 1.061 1.042 0.965
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.961 0.884 0.769 0.944
maximum_error 0.114 0.224 0.325 0.326
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.287 0.299 0.401 0.265
qqplot_mae 0.631 0.541 0.703 0.876
acf_mae 0.068 0.096 0.122 0.034
extremogram_mae 0.034 0.025 0.037 0.028

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp434

Metric naive xgboost lstm cnn
diff_of_means -0.165 -0.198 -0.266 0.269
ratio_of_sd 1.155 1.099 1.091 0.976
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.963 0.901 0.799 0.940
maximum_error 0.108 0.215 0.316 0.322
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.276 0.297 0.373 0.233
qqplot_mae 0.878 0.724 0.778 0.787
acf_mae 0.085 0.106 0.127 0.046
extremogram_mae 0.053 0.020 0.022 0.028

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97